Will Trump bring peace or war? - The US full peace plan for Ukraine

The US peace plan for Ukraine

President Trump's 28-point plan for peace in Ukraine would force Kyiv to give up additional territory in the east, cap the size of its military, and agree it will never join NATO, according to a draft obtained by Axios and verified by a Ukrainian official, a U.S. official and a source familiar with the proposal.

The full peace plan

1. Ukraine's sovereignty will be confirmed.
2. A comprehensive non-aggression agreement will be concluded between Russia, Ukraine and Europe. All ambiguities of the last 30 years will be considered settled.
3. It is expected that Russia will not invade neighboring countries and NATO will not expand further.
4. A dialogue will be held between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States, to resolve all security issues and create conditions for de-escalation in order to ensure global security and increase opportunities for cooperation and future economic development.
5. Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees.

• A U.S. official told Axios this would be an explicit security guarantee for Ukraine from the U.S., the first time that has officially been on the table during these talks, though the proposal does not offer further details on what it entails.

6. The size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be limited to 600,000 personnel.

• Note: Ukraine's army currently has 800,000-850,000 personnel, and had around 250,000 beforethe war, according to a Ukrainian official.

7. Ukraine agrees to enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO, and NATO agrees to include in its statutes a provision that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future.
8. NATO agrees not to station troops in Ukraine.

• Note: NATO countries including France and the U.K. have been working on separate proposals that would include small numbers of European troops on Ukrainian soil after the war. This plan appears to disregard that possibility.

9. European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland.
10. The U.S. guarantee:

• The U.S. will receive compensation for the guarantee;
• If Ukraine invades Russia, it will lose the guarantee;
• If Russia invades Ukraine, in addition to a decisive coordinated military response, all global sanctions will be reinstated, recognition of the new territory and all other benefits of this deal will be revoked;
• If Ukraine launches a missile at Moscow or St. Petersburg without cause, the security guarantee will be deemed invalid.

11. Ukraine is eligible for EU membership and will receive short-term preferential access to the European market while this issue is being considered.
12. A powerful global package of measures to rebuild Ukraine, including but not limited to:

• The creation of a Ukraine Development Fund to invest in fast-growing industries, including technology, data centers, and artificial intelligence.
• The United States will cooperate with Ukraine to jointly rebuild, develop, modernize, and operate Ukraine's gas infrastructure, including pipelines and storage facilities.
• Joint efforts to rehabilitate war-affected areas for the restoration, reconstruction and modernization of cities and residential areas.
• Infrastructure development.
• Extraction of minerals and natural resources.
• The World Bank will develop a special financing package to accelerate these efforts.

13. Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy:

• The lifting of sanctions will be discussed and agreed upon in stages and on a case-by-case basis.
• The United States will enter into a long-term economic cooperation agreement for mutual development in the areas of energy, natural resources, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, data centers, rare earth metal extraction projects in the Arctic, and other mutually beneficial corporate opportunities.
• Russia will be invited to rejoin the G8.

14. Frozen funds will be used as follows:

• $100 billion in frozen Russian assets will be invested in US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine;

• The US will receive 50% of the profits from this venture. Europe will add $100 billion to increase the amount of investment available for Ukraine's reconstruction. Frozen European funds will be unfrozen. The remainder of the frozen Russian funds will be invested in a separate US-Russian investment vehicle that will implement joint projects in specific areas. This fund will be aimed at strengthening relations and increasing common interests to create a strong incentive not to return to conflict.

15. A joint American-Russian working group on security issues will be established to promote and ensure compliance with all provisions of this agreement.
16. 16. Russia will enshrine in law its policy of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine.
17. The United States and Russia will agree to extend the validity of treaties on the non-proliferation and control of nuclear weapons, including the START I Treaty.

• Note: New START, the last major U.S.-Russia arms control treaty, is due to expire in February.

18. Ukraine agrees to be a non-nuclear state in accordance with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
19. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant will be launched under the supervision of the IAEA, and the electricity produced will be distributed equally between Russia and Ukraine — 50:50.
20. Both countries undertake to implement educational programs in schools and society aimed at promoting understanding and tolerance of different cultures and eliminating racism and prejudice:

• Ukraine will adopt EU rules on religious tolerance and the protection of linguistic minorities.
• Both countries will agree to abolish all discriminatory measures and guarantee the rights of Ukrainian and Russian media and education. (Note: Similar ideas were incorporated into Trump's 2020 Israel-Palestine peace plan).
• All Nazi ideology and activities must be rejected and prohibited.

21. Territories:

• Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognized as de facto Russian, including by the United States.
• Kherson and Zaporizhzhia will be frozen along the line of contact, which will mean de facto recognition along the line of contact.
• Russia will relinquish other agreed territories it controls outside the five regions.
• Ukrainian forces will withdraw from the part of Donetsk Oblast that they currently control, and this withdrawal zone will be considered a neutral demilitarized buffer zone, internationally recognized as territory belonging to the Russian Federation. Russian forces will not enter this demilitarized zone.

22. After agreeing on future territorial arrangements, both the Russian Federation and Ukraine undertake not to change these arrangements by force. Any security guarantees will not apply in the event of a breach of this commitment.
23. Russia will not prevent Ukraine from using the Dnieper River for commercial activities, and agreements will be reached on the free transport of grain across the Black Sea.
24. A humanitarian committee will be established to resolve outstanding issues:

• All remaining prisoners and bodies will be exchanged on an 'all for all' basis.
• All civilian detainees and hostages will be returned, including children.
• A family reunification program will be implemented.
• Measures will be taken to alleviate the suffering of the victims of the conflict.

25. Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days.
26. All parties involved in this conflict will receive full amnesty for their actions during the war and agree not to make any claims or consider any complaints in the future.
27. This agreement will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by the Peace Council, headed by President Donald J. Trump. Sanctions will be imposed for violations.

• Note: This is the same general structure Trump proposed to govern the Gaza peace agreement.

28. Once all parties agree to this memorandum, the ceasefire will take effect immediately after both sides retreat to agreed points to begin implementation of the agreement.

Source: www.axios.com - Trump's full 28-point Ukraine-Russia peace plan

I think both on Washington and Zelinsky is not about Thanksgiving and having it all done by Thanksgiving. It is about the collapse that is taking place on the battlefront on the battlefront because that network that line of defensive cities are all falling. Behind the defensive cities is just open fields. They'll just cross them right up to the river Dniper and that the same thing is happening in other parts of the front line in Zaparisia and Hassan there are key cities and positions that are suddenly falling it's almost a sort of cascade

[. . .]

The other one is that his party is turning against him and turning against his chief of staff Yermach particularly. He has party support, but many of his party which has a dominant position in parliament is splitting and joining with the opposition and demanding a unity government a national government. They're demanding that the head of his office is sacked. There are many of his many of his um leaders have many of them have now taken refuge in Israel.

[. . .]

United States has missiles in Romania and Poland. The Polish missiles the flight time is about 9 minutes. Flight time from Romania to Moscow is 7 minutes. These can be nuclear with nuclear warheads. Originally Putin asked this was Biden at Geneva and he said are you planning to put your missiles then in Ukraine? And Biden said no no no we wouldn't do that, but afterwards Blink saw Lawrov and he said; Yes we will put missiles in Ukraine and we will not discuss that. We may discuss with you just a limitation on the numbers. That's all. And the time for that would be three minutes right time. Not enough time to determine whether a missile has a nuclear warhead or not.

[. . .]

what he [Putin] is wanting is some boundaries that people understand, you know, within your boundaries. That's fine. Cross your boundaries and then everything happens. You've got to have some sort and this is what I'm talking about really with deterrence boundaries. And we saw this very clearly in the sense where uh my wife who speaks Arabic when you go to Sicily where there are lots of Arabic Arab communities there, and communities from the Middle East many of whom she knows quite well and she says: But how come there's no violence how come you you you know it's it's relatively safe and peaceful here and they said very simply look we know the boundaries we understand exactly within the boundaries is we're pretty free to do what we want. Cross the boundaries and you're finished.

[. . .]

the coalition of the willing, as they call it, are coaching Zelinsky and training him to say no. That's it. They are trying to block the any resolution of this. It's very clear. And as I say, the aim ultimately is not to go themselves and fight a war with Russia um but to bring uh America into the conflict in some way. So they want if you like a process in which uh Russia is trapped into a ceasefire.

[. . .]

what Europe has done is to demolish all the bridges to the future.

[. . .]

the only people who will win an election or can win election in the future will be those that can produce a credible um uh plan to create the bread and butter needs of ordinary people. jobs, living wage, medical care. These things are the essential that have disappeared or in the process of disappearing in Europe and they've got to get them got to provide a critical answer. But you can't do that in Europe or in America because we've had financialization for so many decades and certainly from 2008 where everything has become you know about assets rising.

this text wasn't discussed with us [Russia] in detail and I can surmise why. I guess the reason is the same. The US administration still hasn't been able to secure the approval of Ukraine. Ukraine opposes to that. Obviously, Ukraine and its European allies still harbor illusions and still dream of delivering a strategic defeat to Russia.

[. . .]

the CIA, you know, had set up offices in both the GUR and SBU. So the effort of western subversion against uh Russia using Ukraine as a tool, it's been going on for 30 years. And for what purpose? primarily the west wants to control the gas, the oil, the gold, the uranium, the precious earth rare earth minerals that Russia Russia controls now. And then to use Russia as a way to further weaken uh to go after China.

• General Alaudinov

I think Russia will stop at the point where Ukraine will be unable to resist anymore and will accept the plan which would meet Russian conditions, not just conditions met by formulated by Americans or Europeans, but Russian conditions.

[. . .]

we proved to be unable to implement Minsk agreements which were much much simpler than what can be envisaged here. What the hell can guarantee that this treaty extremely complicated one, extremely tricky one will be implemented and kept on ongoing.

[. . .]

apparently the Europeans are dysfunctional at the political level. They're dysfunction at the diplomatic level. That's for sure. But it now also appears that they're dysfunctional at the tactical [military] level.

there was an agreement signed with the Germans in 1945 capitulation. That's the type of agreement that's going to have to be signed in the end.

[. . .]

there's two things going on here. There's the only two things that are really uniting the United States is the dollar, this shared possible prosperity and common enemies. You're constantly have to have an enemy because without that enemy the United States falls apart. It would have fallen apart early on because there were absolutely different colonies of different people with different traditions forming different towns and cities that had really nothing in common except maybe this some kind of quasi dream about making it big i.e. the dollar um and the fear of some enemy whether it's Indians whether it's the British whether it's the Mexicans and so on and so on. So the US constantly has to have an enemy to dominate anything around it.

[. . .]

the US has to have either dollars or enemies or both better than ever. Otherwise, the US starts to fall apart. It regionalizes that people have nothing. I mean, it's it's a country that doesn't have a single religion, has multiple cultures, a lot of them competing with each other. very different backgrounds of the people that came there. Loyalties that are more regional than nationwide, crumbling infrastructure, crumbling economics. What does it have to unify?

[. . .]

Washington is running out of time. This is why the desperations happen because the Ukrainian arm is finally collapsing. The attrition warfare is getting into the late stage uh where the one site collapses and then the big gains begin.